Updating Population targets

July 10, 2022

Notes (rough) on updating weighting targets. It’s finnicky and boring, with nothing quite adding up without some hacks. One difference this time is that I’m trying to gross to the household populations (excluding students in student residences and those in care homes). Though this produces problems of its own.

I’m writing this before I’ve actually integrated these targets into the model. It’ll be interesting to see if there are many changes.

Updating the model is wholly manual and takes several (unpaid!) days. Next, I’ve got a new year of FRS (and I think another Scottish Household Survey) to do, then uprating. Uprating is especially problematic given how inflation is going. Then more checks on updated parametes, then the new fuel costs payment, then some more thought on how to do fuel consumption and maybe all consumption. Finding time for this is hard, especially when the sun shines and I’d much rather be on the beach or people watching in a Shawlands cafe. Or even earning money with the day-jobs.

It’s tedious. Trawling through a collection of spreasheets (sources for which below).

The main working spreadsheet is target_generation.ods. (Open office file).

This time I’m trying to include only hhld population. I found an NRS table of estimates of the non household population by LA.

Problems:

  1. using just households will underpredict pension costs and receipts, and also e.g. UBI;
  2. we target to disablement benefits but some of this will be received by those in care homes and I need to disaggregate that bit out and don’t currently.

Scaling popns: why is NOMIS 16+ popn lower?

Care Homes CPAGP 914 “You cannot get AA,DLA care, PIP daily living” .. in a care home…

There is a HUGE institutional popn in 16-19 age group esp Glasgow, Aberdeen, Dundee - students. Removing this is a big change.

Fiddly bits:

I’m also adding Social-Economic group - maybe this will help proportion of higher earners and so slightly fix income tax

Sources:

‘Housing Statistics: Stock by Tenure’. n.d. Accessed 7 August 2022. http://www.gov.scot/publications/housing-statistics-stock-by-tenure/.

‘Labour Market Profile - Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics’. n.d. Accessed 8 August 2022. https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/gor/2013265931/report.aspx. ‘Stat-Xplore - Table View’. n.d. Accessed 8 August 2022. https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/jsf/tableView/tableView.xhtml.

Team, National Records of Scotland Web. 2013a. ‘National Records of Scotland’. Document. National Records of Scotland. National Records of Scotland. 31 May 2013. https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2020-based.

———. 2013b. ‘National Records of Scotland’. Document. National Records of Scotland. National Records of Scotland. 31 May 2013. https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections/list-of-data-tables.

‘Stat-Xplore - Table View’. n.d. Accessed 8 August 2022. https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/jsf/tableView/tableView.xhtml.

Category: Tags: Programming
Updating Population targets - July 10, 2022 - Graham Stark