Local Matters

May 20, 2021

Now that I have merged in SHS data, with postcodes, I’ve been doing something with it.

Local Housing Allowances and Bedroom Tax

I have a problem implementing the rules for the bedroom tax exactly - it needs someone better at maths than I am.

Problem here is that Broad Rental Market Areas (BHMA) are not the same as local authority areas (or anything else). I think the only really important difference is Glasgow City/Greater Glasgow, since the allowed rents are much much higher.

BRMA Rates 2020/21 Scotland

BRMA	Room	1 Bed	2 Bed	3 Bed	4 Bed
Aberdeen and Shire	74.79	97.81	136.93	172.6	230.14
Argyll and Bute	72.74	86.3	115.07	126.58	207.12
Ayrshires	76.99	80.55	97.81	115.07	159.95
Dumfries and Galloway	59.84	85.15	103.56	115.03	155.34
Dundee and Angus	69.04	84	115.07	149.59	241.64
East Dunbartonshire	71.34	103.56	136.93	182.96	298.03
Fife	70.19	86.3	109.32	132.33	195.62
Forth Valley	74.12	90.9	115.07	149.59	218.63
Greater Glasgow	80.55	113.92	149.59	172.6	322.19
Highland and Islands	74.79	97.81	126.58	146.14	184.11
Lothian	94.82	158.79	189.86	253.15	390.08
North Lanarkshire	65.59	82.85	103.56	113.92	182.96
Perth and Kinross	65.01	92.05	115.07	149.59	205.97
Renfrewshire/ Inverclyde	67.66	80.55	103.56	126.58	230.14
Scottish Borders	62.14	74.79	97.81	120.82	184.11
South Lanarkshire	69.04	86.3	109.32	143.84	218.63
West Dunbartonshire	69.04	86.3	103.56	126.58	218.63
West Lothian	69.04	112.77	138.08	159.95	218.63

Source Local Housing Allowance Rates: 2020-2021

Council Tax

This is more straightforward and just a few lines of code gets pleasing close to the Scottish Average. At the LA level, it’s a bit more mixed:

			Modelled
name	ccode	hhlds/dwellings	raised £pa	average £	actual average	%Diff
Aberdeen City	S12000033	89,759	108,144,651	1,204	1,258	-4.29
Aberdeenshire	S12000034	112,114	144,572,931	1,289	1,372	-6.05
Angus	S12000041	54,221	64,370,462	1,187	1,044	13.70
Argyll and Bute	S12000035	41,788	53,200,034	1,273	1,282	-0.70
City of Edinburgh	S12000036	238,269	291,624,113	1,223	1,361	-10.14
Clackmannanshire	S12000005	23,890	26,780,061	1,120	1,152	-2.78
Dumfries and Galloway	S12000006	69,699	80,473,252	1,154	1,075	7.35
Dundee City	S12000042	70,685	79,500,506	1,124	1,076	4.46
East Ayrshire	S12000008	55,387	71,544,247	1,291	1,133	13.94
East Dunbartonshire	S12000045	46,228	64,371,959	1,392	1,566	-11.11
East Lothian	S12000010	46,771	54,449,337	1,164	1,384	-15.89
East Renfrewshire	S12000011	39,344	52,439,870	1,332	1,578	-15.59
Falkirk	S12000014	72,672	82,189,182	1,130	1,081	4.53
Fife	S12000047	169,238	201,815,980	1,192	1,147	3.92
Glasgow City	S12000049	294,622	345,953,492	1,174	1,137	3.25
Highland	S12000017	109,514	148,810,954	1,358	1,226	10.77
Inverclyde	S12000018	37,614	45,377,341	1,206	1,078	11.87
Midlothian	S12000019	39,733	56,353,186	1,418	1,397	1.50
Moray	S12000020	42,931	54,057,702	1,259	1,171	7.51
Na h-Eileanan Siar	S12000013	12,832	16,202,306	1,262	886	42.43
North Ayrshire	S12000021	64,140	76,090,669	1,186	1,096	8.21
North Lanarkshire	S12000050	152,443	169,548,479	1,112	1,016	9.44
Orkney Islands	S12000023	10,589	12,454,054	1,176	986	19.27
Perth and Kinross	S12000048	69,003	83,214,674	1,205	1,344	-10.34
Renfrewshire	S12000038	86,683	102,714,536	1,184	1,190	-0.50
Scottish Borders	S12000026	54,715	67,140,166	1,227	1,184	3.63
Shetland Islands	S12000027	10,439	11,554,919	1,106	1,019	8.54
South Ayrshire	S12000028	52,588	64,547,705	1,227	1,305	-5.98
South Lanarkshire	S12000029	147,434	167,089,775	1,133	1,107	2.35
Stirling	S12000030	39,653	50,270,654	1,267	1,483	-14.56
West Dunbartonshire	S12000039	43,029	45,940,996	1,067	1,093	-2.38
West Lothian	S12000040	78,966	91,686,747	1,161	1,133	2.47
Scotland		2,476,993	2,984,484,940	1,204	1,201	0.25

First 3 output cols here are results from test case runs of the model over 3 years Scottish FRS, next col is actual Council Tax per dwelling. Not bad, except the small LAs are quite a bit out at times. Whether this is just sample variation or a problem with the matching algorithm I’m not sure.

Lots of things to be improved, like the distinction between a household and a dwelling, cases where CT is payable by owners and not tenants, and discounts for disabled people.

Thanks to John Franey for the nice Markdown Table Converter.

Category: Blog Tags: Local Taxes