Local Matters

May 20, 2021

Now that I have merged in SHS data, with postcodes, I’ve been doing something with it.

Local Housing Allowances and Bedroom Tax

I have a problem implementing the rules for the bedroom tax exactly - it needs someone better at maths than I am.

Problem here is that Broad Rental Market Areas (BHMA) are not the same as local authority areas (or anything else). I think the only really important difference is Glasgow City/Greater Glasgow, since the allowed rents are much much higher.

BRMA Rates 2020/21 Scotland

BRMA Room 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed
Aberdeen and Shire 74.79 97.81 136.93 172.6 230.14
Argyll and Bute 72.74 86.3 115.07 126.58 207.12
Ayrshires 76.99 80.55 97.81 115.07 159.95
Dumfries and Galloway 59.84 85.15 103.56 115.03 155.34
Dundee and Angus 69.04 84 115.07 149.59 241.64
East Dunbartonshire 71.34 103.56 136.93 182.96 298.03
Fife 70.19 86.3 109.32 132.33 195.62
Forth Valley 74.12 90.9 115.07 149.59 218.63
Greater Glasgow 80.55 113.92 149.59 172.6 322.19
Highland and Islands 74.79 97.81 126.58 146.14 184.11
Lothian 94.82 158.79 189.86 253.15 390.08
North Lanarkshire 65.59 82.85 103.56 113.92 182.96
Perth and Kinross 65.01 92.05 115.07 149.59 205.97
Renfrewshire/ Inverclyde 67.66 80.55 103.56 126.58 230.14
Scottish Borders 62.14 74.79 97.81 120.82 184.11
South Lanarkshire 69.04 86.3 109.32 143.84 218.63
West Dunbartonshire 69.04 86.3 103.56 126.58 218.63
West Lothian 69.04 112.77 138.08 159.95 218.63

Source Local Housing Allowance Rates: 2020-2021

Council Tax

This is more straightforward and just a few lines of code gets pleasing close to the Scottish Average. At the LA level, it’s a bit more mixed:

      Modelled      
name ccode hhlds/dwellings raised £pa average £ actual average %Diff
Aberdeen City S12000033 89,759 108,144,651 1,204 1,258 -4.29
Aberdeenshire S12000034 112,114 144,572,931 1,289 1,372 -6.05
Angus S12000041 54,221 64,370,462 1,187 1,044 13.70
Argyll and Bute S12000035 41,788 53,200,034 1,273 1,282 -0.70
City of Edinburgh S12000036 238,269 291,624,113 1,223 1,361 -10.14
Clackmannanshire S12000005 23,890 26,780,061 1,120 1,152 -2.78
Dumfries and Galloway S12000006 69,699 80,473,252 1,154 1,075 7.35
Dundee City S12000042 70,685 79,500,506 1,124 1,076 4.46
East Ayrshire S12000008 55,387 71,544,247 1,291 1,133 13.94
East Dunbartonshire S12000045 46,228 64,371,959 1,392 1,566 -11.11
East Lothian S12000010 46,771 54,449,337 1,164 1,384 -15.89
East Renfrewshire S12000011 39,344 52,439,870 1,332 1,578 -15.59
Falkirk S12000014 72,672 82,189,182 1,130 1,081 4.53
Fife S12000047 169,238 201,815,980 1,192 1,147 3.92
Glasgow City S12000049 294,622 345,953,492 1,174 1,137 3.25
Highland S12000017 109,514 148,810,954 1,358 1,226 10.77
Inverclyde S12000018 37,614 45,377,341 1,206 1,078 11.87
Midlothian S12000019 39,733 56,353,186 1,418 1,397 1.50
Moray S12000020 42,931 54,057,702 1,259 1,171 7.51
Na h-Eileanan Siar S12000013 12,832 16,202,306 1,262 886 42.43
North Ayrshire S12000021 64,140 76,090,669 1,186 1,096 8.21
North Lanarkshire S12000050 152,443 169,548,479 1,112 1,016 9.44
Orkney Islands S12000023 10,589 12,454,054 1,176 986 19.27
Perth and Kinross S12000048 69,003 83,214,674 1,205 1,344 -10.34
Renfrewshire S12000038 86,683 102,714,536 1,184 1,190 -0.50
Scottish Borders S12000026 54,715 67,140,166 1,227 1,184 3.63
Shetland Islands S12000027 10,439 11,554,919 1,106 1,019 8.54
South Ayrshire S12000028 52,588 64,547,705 1,227 1,305 -5.98
South Lanarkshire S12000029 147,434 167,089,775 1,133 1,107 2.35
Stirling S12000030 39,653 50,270,654 1,267 1,483 -14.56
West Dunbartonshire S12000039 43,029 45,940,996 1,067 1,093 -2.38
West Lothian S12000040 78,966 91,686,747 1,161 1,133 2.47
Scotland   2,476,993 2,984,484,940 1,204 1,201 0.25

First 3 output cols here are results from test case runs of the model over 3 years Scottish FRS, next col is actual Council Tax per dwelling. Not bad, except the small LAs are quite a bit out at times. Whether this is just sample variation or a problem with the matching algorithm I’m not sure.

Lots of things to be improved, like the distinction between a household and a dwelling, cases where CT is payable by owners and not tenants, and discounts for disabled people.

Thanks to John Franey for the nice Markdown Table Converter.

Category: Blog Tags: Local Taxes
Local Matters - May 20, 2021 - Graham Stark